One of the things that I would really like to see happen is Greg Maddux win 400 games. I started considering the possibility last year when I put together the fact that he's closing in on 350 and that he has won at least 13 games every year since 1988. Sitting at 347 wins at the end of the 2007 season means that 4 seasons of 13 wins apiece puts him right at 399. So, if he can keep up the 13-win-a-season streak for 4 more years and just get to 14 wins in one of those seasons, he's got 400. Maddux will turn 42 during the first month of the season in 2008, so that means he would be 46 in the final season of that. There certainly have been plenty of pitchers who have pitched on the major-league level into their mid-40s. So, it does seem like it would be possible. I'm not sure how likely it is and I'm sure the likes of Bill James and Rob Neyer could illustrate to us the high improbability of it, but it certainly does seem possible. In a time when numerous accounts have wondered about how many more 300 game winners there would be, it would be really cool to have someone get to 400. In doing so, Maddux would be third on the all-time wins list, trailing only Cy Young's 511 and Walter Johnson's 417. Given that those ballplayers, as well as the likes of Christy Mathewson, Grover Cleveland Alexander, and Pud Galvin, whom Maddux would be passing to get to 400, pitched a lot more often than Maddux, that would really seem to suggest something extraordinary about Maddux's longevity and excellence. Even if he wins just 27 more games (say, 14 in 2008 and 13 in 2009), that would put him at 374 and, just like 400, into third place all-time. That seems even more possible and would be nearly as incredible. In looking around this past week, I noticed that others have pondered this topic as well. Among others, this account and this account give more extended discussion of the topic.
I think that one of the things that draws me (and I assume others) to sports is seeing people pursuing and sometimes achieving these kinds of extraordinary things. Assuming that Maddux continues to pitch well enough for teams to be interested in signing him, I hope he doesn't retire before giving this a shot. So, if you're with me, let's do whatever we can to encourage him to pursue it and let him know that people would like to see it. As this account reflects, Maddux is aware of the possibility.
2 comments:
I wonder, if he got to 400, though, why not keep trying for 417? If he is good enough long enough to get to one, he may well be able to hang on enough to get to the other.
Great point. At the 13-a-year rate, it would mean two more seasons than what I mentioned and come some time early in the second season. He'd be 48 that year. Of course, if he can just average 14 wins per year instead of 13, 5 seasons means 70 wins and puts him right on 417. I'd love to him get to 418, too.
Post a Comment