Monday, January 12, 2009

Current MLB Hall of Famers

So, the other day, I posted who I would have voted for on the 2009 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. As I’m sure most of us know by now, Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice got in … while, unfortunately, Jesse Orosco only got one vote. (Whatever is this world coming too???)

Now, I’d like to discuss which active players, if they stopped playing today, I would consider worthy of induction in the Hall of Fame. (I’m defining an “active” player for these purposes as someone who played for a major league team in the 2008 season and, at least to my knowledge, has not yet officially retired. So, for instance, Sammy Sosa’s not considered, since, even though he’s looking to come back, he didn’t play for a major league team in 2008, while, on the other hand, Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina are out because they officially retired.) Here’s the list, in alphabetical order, of players who I would unequivocally vote into the Hall of Fame: Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey, Trevor Hoffman, Derek Jeter, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz, Ichiro Suzuki, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, and Omar Vizquel. The only one of these players who gives me any real pause is Sheffield, but a glance at his numbers and I’m sold. One more home run this year, putting him at the 500 mark, and I don’t even have that hesitation. I know some people claim that 500 home runs may not mean as much as it used to and, thus, shouldn’t be an “automatic” for making the Hall. I still, though, think of it as an automatic and, besides, Sheffield’s 251 career steals and 2615 hits give him credibility beyond the 500 home runs.

Additionally, there are two players whom I would give very heavy consideration. They are Vladimir Guerrero and Chipper Jones. Jones may very well belong in the previous group and, given one or two more decent seasons, I’ll pretty surely elevate him there. I also think Guerrero is well on his way to the above list, but just needs a couple more good seasons to make it unequivocal. So, if both ended their careers today, I’d have to think about, but, I’ll bet, in the end, I’d say they go in.

After that, there are 7 other players whom I would consider, though I don’t think I would vote for any of them. They are Moises Alou, Garret Anderson, Carlos Delgado, Jim Edmonds, Luis Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Andy Pettitte. I’ve written about Anderson before as a really good player who tends to be overlooked and I do like him a lot, but if he quit today I don’t think he’d have done enough for me to say he gets in. It looks like Carlos Delgado is slowing down quite a bit, but if he can manage to put together another good season or two, I might give him stronger consideration. Of course, if he does that, he’ll get to 500 home runs and he’d meet that “automatic” criteria. Jim Edmonds has the weakest offensive numbers of this group, but his defense counts for something. Still, I don’t really think he’s a Hall of Famer and I think I’m really just giving him a look out of respect for the nice career he’s had. Alou is probably the second weakest candidate on this list and, again, I’m probably just acknowledging his nice career by considering him, but wouldn’t end up ever strongly considering him. A few years ago, Helton looked well on his way, but he’s dropped off considerably since then and right now wouldn’t have done enough to make it. Still, he may have a few good seasons left and, if he does produce them, I’d give him a good amount of consideration. That, then, leaves two players who I approach from radically different perspectives.

First is Andy Pettitte. Pettitte tends to really bother me. When Pettitte admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs, he tended to be given a much bigger break than many others, including plenty of discourse about how good of a guy he is—discourse that tended to be attached to his Christianity (like this piece by Jayson Stark). Yet, it just seemed to me to be one more example of someone being considered a “moral” person simply because he was very publicly Christian, regardless of what actions he had taken. This is exactly the kind of discourse that George W. Bush relied upon in sickening fashion and it’s really tough to take with Pettitte who, well before he admitted to his use of performance-enhancing drugs, wrote a book instructing children about how to live life appropriately. So, the way that Pettitte is depicted disgusts me and I just want to refuse to consider him for the Hall of Fame. However, he does warrant some consideration, given his 215 wins and the significant role that he played in all of the Yankee championship teams of the 1990s and 2000s. However, two things stand out here to me. One is that his numbers of complete games and shutouts pale in comparison to his contemporaries. In his career, Pettitte has 25 complete games. Mark Mulder, who has fallen completely apart after a few good seasons, has as many as Pettitte. C.C. Sabathia, who is still just 28 years old, has one more than Pettitte. Even Jon Lieber has pitched as many complete games as Pettitte. Even more striking, though, is shutouts. Pettitte has amassed only 4 shutouts in his career. Tom Gordon spent more than 80 percent of his career as a reliever and has as many shutouts as Pettitte. I don’t like to take one statistic and hold it up to suggest that despite all kinds of other great things, this keeps someone from making it (the way some folks do with on-base percentage for Andre Dawson), but, given a very marginal case to begin with, this does seem to speak heavily about Pettitte’s performance. He won a good number of games, but by handing it over to the bullpen a lot to finish it off for him. If he wasn’t on the Yankees and/or if he had not had Mariano Rivera at the ends of games, does he even end up at 200 wins? The second thing that stands out here is that his ERA is 3.89. That doesn’t bother me in and of itself, but when essentially having the same ERA (at 3.90) has been considered a dent in Jack Morris’s case by many folks, then the same has to go for Pettitte. As I wrote a few days ago, I’d vote for Jack Morris. So, the 3.89 ERA doesn’t disqualify Pettitte in my mind, but Morris certainly goes way before him, given that Morris seems to have him beat everywhere (or almost everywhere) else. All of that said, I don’t think I’d vote for Pettitte for the Hall of Fame if he stopped playing today, but I’d make myself look at his case to make sure I wasn’t being too dismissive, given the distaste that I associate with him.

On the opposite side is Luis Gonzalez. By the numbers, I think Gonzalez has the best credentials from this group of players. That includes, from among this group, the most hits, the most doubles, the most triples, the second-most home runs (to Delgado), the second-most RBIs (again, to Delgado), the most total bases, the most runs scored, the most walks, and, of course, one of the most memorable moments in World Series history. So, maybe he deserves more consideration and I think I might be devaluing him for a reason that is similar, but in an opposite direction, to my efforts to make sure I look at Pettitte. Since the mid-1990s, Gonzalez has been my favorite player and, so, I want to be sure that I’m not being too generous to him because of that. However, I don’t think he’ll get very much consideration for the Hall of Fame when his time comes to be considered. I really want to put him in, but, in the end, if he quit today, I think I’d leave him out. But, then again, when I look at his career numbers vis-à-vis Mark Grace, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, and Jim Rice, and others who I said I’d put in if I could vote for all the folks I want to, he stacks up favorably. So, in the end, I guess Gonzalez would go into that big field of players who I’d consider every year and vote for if I could vote for all of them.

I know that there are some players I may be leaving out here (Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and even Jamie Moyer come to mind as possibilities to consider), but they’re sort of on the next rung down, with the possibility of moving up, depending on what they do in the coming couple of seasons.

2 comments:

Michael Butterworth said...

So, I checked Baseball Reference again to verify some instincts. I really dislike Sheffield and Kent, but they're both deserving. Schilling appears to be borderline, but we all know that postseason performance matters. I knew he was good, but in 19 career postseason starts, Schilling is 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Maybe God likes him better than Pettitte...?

Maybe your weakest case is Vizquel. But Ozzie Smith is first ballot, then doesn't Vizquel belong? I am one of the few, of course, who thinks that Ozzie Smith is monumentally overrated.

Guerrero's numbers are staggering. If his career ended today, I'd vote him in. I think Jones is a lock, too, especially when you compare him to other third basemen over baseball history.

Delgado's 2008 season (with the METS!): 38 HR, 115 RBI, 96 R, .871 OPS. He's slowing down? He has only 2010 hits, but huge power numbers and has been a good fielder. I vote him in.

Gonzalez' 2001 season: S-T-E-R-O-I-D-S??? That spike is so inconsistent with the rest of his career. I do think it's interesting that he's played in 2,591 games and has 2,591 hits. I'm surprised that his career totals are as good as they are, but I'd still say no.

Where's Miguel Tejada on your list to consider? Probably a no, unless he returns to form for 3-4 years (not likely). How many more seasons would Aramis Ramirez need? Seriously, look him up. David Ortiz?

Raymond I. Schuck said...

LOL on Schilling ... I don't why, but for some reason I never realize how high Delgado's career numbers are and then I see his totals and wonder how I didn't notice ... especially since he's a Met. His 2008 power numbers kind of came out of nowhere after a couple years in which he seemed to be fading and I've seen plenty of fantasy baseball sites and publications that have mentioned him and phrases like "slowing down," etc. together. I'd probably end up voting for him.

As for Tejada, Ortiz, Ramirez, we're probably looking at anywhere from 2-4 more productive seasons for them to make the radar. When doing this I usually sort active players' stats on MLB.com by hits and go down the list. Once I get down below 2000, I just glance down to about 1500 to see if there's anyone whose name sticks out. All three of them are below 2000 and didn't stick out (like Ichiro Suzuki does, for instance), so that's why I didn't talk about them. I'll certainly look at Ramirez again, though.