(Dis)Parity in the NBA

Tonight, the NBA Finals will begin, as the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers square off in a best-of-seven series to decide who will win the league title. As many have noted, these are the NBA’s two most storied and championship-laden teams, with the Lakers (between Minneapolis and Los Angeles) having won 14 titles and the Celtics (all in Boston) having won 16 titles. These are also the two teams that are considered to have been the leaders in ushering in a new era for the NBA beginning in 1980, with the emergence of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, fresh off their match-up in the NCAA men’s basketball championship game in 1979, in which Johnson’s Michigan State Spartans defeated Bird’s Indiana State Sycamores. In the NBA, Johnson’s Lakers and Bird’s Celtics would win 8 of 9 NBA championships from 1980-1988, including squaring off against one another 3 times to decide the championship during that span.

Since 1988, the Lakers have won an additional 3 championships (2000-2002), while the Celtics are making their first appearance in the NBA Finals since losing to the Lakers in 1987. Given this history, this year’s match-up has been characterized, among other things, as “a classic series.” I think the match-up is also indicative of a parity problem in the NBA.

If we take 1980 as the marker in NBA history that it is purported to be, there have been 28 champions crowned in the time since that season. In a week or so, either the Lakers or Celtics will be number 29. Over the span of 28 seasons from 1980-2007, the number of NBA franchises that have won championships is 8. Those franchises are:

Los Angeles Lakers – 8 championships (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2000, 2001, 2002)
Boston Celtics – 3 championships (1981, 1984, 1986)
Philadelphia 76ers – 1 championship (1983)
Detroit Pistons – 3 championships (1989, 1990, 2004)
Chicago Bulls – 6 championships (1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998)
Houston Rockets – 2 championships (1994, 1995)
San Antonio Spurs – 4 championships (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007)
Miami Heat – 1 championship (2006)

The average number of championships for those 8 franchises is 3.5, with the Lakers’ 8 as the high number and the one championship each by the 76ers and the Heat as the low number. Indeed, if we take out the 1 championship each by Philadelphia and Miami, it means that 6 franchises have won 26 of the last 28 NBA championships, with an average of 4.333 championships per franchise. Obviously, either Los Angeles or Boston will win in 2008, so those numbers, in a week or so, will be 8 franchises winning the last 29 championships, with an average of 3.625 championships per franchise, and 6 franchises winning 27 of the last 29 championships, with an average of 4.5 championships per franchise. (It’s also interesting to note that these numbers were guaranteed to be the same by the conference championship round of this year’s playoffs, since the Lakers beat San Antonio to advance to the finals and the Celtics beat Detroit to advance to the finals.)

As a point of comparison, we might look at the other 3 “major sports leagues” that dominate sports coverage in the United States: Major League Baseball, the National Football League, and the National Hockey League. Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the championships won in each of the four major sports leagues since 1980 (including 2008 for the NBA, since it’s a foregone conclusion that either Los Angeles or Boston will win):

NBA
Championships: 29
Franchises that have won a championship during that period: 8
Average number of championships per franchise for those franchises that have won in that period: 3.625

NHL
Championships: 28
Franchises that have won a championship during that period: 13
Average number of championships per franchise for those franchises that have won in that period: 2.154

NFL
Championships: 29
Franchises that have won a championship during that period: 14
Average number of championships per franchise for those franchises that have won in that period: 2.071

MLB
Championships: 27
Franchises that have won a championship during that period: 18
Average number of championships per franchise for those franchises that have won in that period: 1.5

These numbers clearly indicate that Major League Baseball has had a lot more parity in terms of winning championships since 1980 than the other three sports and that the NHL and the NFL have had considerably more parity along those lines than the NBA over that time period. Now, this is not to say that this is the only way to measure parity and I would not be surprised to find, for instance, that MLB does far worse than the other three leagues when it comes to number of playoff appearances for franchises over that time period. (That is, of course, at least partially a result of less teams making the playoffs in MLB than in the other three leagues.) We might also look at won-loss records, economic disparities (e.g. salaries, revenues, etc.), and other things and find varied results as well. So, again, I don’t want to say this is the only way to judge parity or that the measurement of parity upon which I have just elaborated is necessarily the best or more appropriate way to judge parity. However, I do think that 8 franchises winning the last 29 championships can’t be ignored. … I mean, come on, even Wimbledon, which is known for long streaks of dominance by the likes of Pete Sampras, Martina Navratilova, and, currently, Roger Federer, has a much better record on parity in terms of diversity of champions than the NBA. Since 1980, 13 different men have won the Wimbledon men’s championship and 12 different women have won the Wimbledon women’s championship.